Weekly Dose Archives - fisdom

The Signal: Rising Yields, Indian Equities & Your Portfolio

The Signal your portfolio

Markets worldwide are dancing to spikes, with equities and bond yields fighting to be the bigger bull. In a bid to capture the bigger slice of the return pie, many market participants are on the hunt to know if the 2 asset classes can grow in tandem. 

The recent drum-up in debt followed with equity crash signals how the 2 avenues can grow off each other but not with each other. 

Background: 

Rising 10-year US and Indian gov securities triggered worries about impact on other asset classes, such as equities and gold. Rising US yields to ~1.61% for the 1st time after the pandemic caused Indian yields to rally from 5.76% to 6.20%, and Sensex to fall 2,000+ points – All in a week’s time.

The reasons for Indian equities to react to rising US yields are plenty and complicated. What really matters is how can it affect your portfolio or your investing approach. 

Here’s some food for thought: 

  • India has delivered ~12% CAGR over the last 20 years. Parallelly, the last 20 years have been subject to multiple US and Indian bond yield hardenings. Meaning, those who exited equities in worry of yield hardening missed out on growing their investment by a multiple of 9x.
  • Per a Morgan Stanley study, over last 20 years, there have been four major rising long bond yield cycles. Each was positively correlated to equity prices – i.e., rising yields led to rising share prices.

To further simplify the above statements, lets trace the Nifty 50’s trajectory over the last 2 decades, with correlation matrix with the US bond yields to fully understand the mathematical relation enjoyed between the 2:

The signal

Correlation is a mathematical measurement tool to gauge the symbiotic relation between 2 elements. Inculcating a host of underlying principles, its reading is instrumental in reducing risks and promoting diversification.

Borrowing from a Boston University study, this is how the correlation between India & US yields are to be perceived:

The Signal

As is observed, Indian markets enjoy weak correlation with Indian markets. However, in re-iterating, Indian equities can see short-term reactions to bouncing yields. It is imperative to hold equities in for the long-term to negate such downside pressures. 

To further ease investor tensions, we back tested data over the last 20 years with 5-year windows to review performance (absolute return) of Indian equity markets and US yields. The regular interval monitoring helps gauge the true potential of Indian equities and the dampening effect of US yields at the same time.

The table below highlights the same:

The Signal

As is observed, Indian equities have out-shined US yields consecutively over the last 2 decades. The same stands true on stretching time horizons, thus adding meat to the bone in adjudging holding equities to trump yield worries. 

Investor Takeaway

Equities is touted as the best inflation-beating asset class in the long-run. Now, think of what increasing yields indicate. Yep, you guessed right, rising yields equates to rising interest rates, which is the textbook definition of inflation.

Voila, now you don’t need to worry about the why’s and what’s behind the market murmurs of rising yields. Think of it as inflation and do not resort to hasty actions to shudder its volatility in the interim on your portfolio. Let your time in the market take care of the same for you.

In summarizing technically, the move in yields since summer 2020 is not large, as the global economy is lifting. The assessment of last 2 recession cycles shows how 100 bps jump in US yield is ‘typical’ from their recession lows, in periods marking transition between recession and growth.

Given the magnitude of expansion at bay, neither the direction nor the magnitude of yield increases is odd. For as long as equities promise growth, there is not much to worry off (in the long run).

If you share differing opinions, do reach out to us to share your observations. As always, we excitedly await to hear from you.

Till then, Happy Weekend

The Signal: The Week Highlights

The-Signal-Week-and-more-1

the weekly newsletter

 

1. India’s GDP Goes Grand

Indian economy returned to growth in Q3FY21 with GDP & GVA reporting 0.4% and 1.0% after 2 consecutive quarters of contraction. 6%+ growth in Construction, Financials, Real Estate and Services were key drivers for growth, marking return to pre-pandemic health and strengthening of V-shaped recovery.

GVA growth metrics for FY21 has been revised upwards to (-) 6.5% from (-) 7.2% earlier, courtesy of revival of Transport & Travel segment. Further, govt.’s flagship ‘Atmanirbhar’ policy and broadening PLI scheme will be instrumental in printing GDP growth for the near and short-term, with long-lasting effects on long-term growth.

 

2. Manufacturing Makes Promising Potential

India Manufacturing PMI recorded 57.5 in February vs 57.7 in January. In October, it recorded the highest figures in 12 years at 58.9. Remaining flat-to-positive, the index remained above its long-run average of 53.6. The PMI reading has maintained growth trajectory for 7 th month in a row. 

As is seen globally, manufacturing PMI continues to out-perform its services counterpart, courtesy of the latter being hit harder by Covid-19. 3-month joint-highest business optimism can translate into healthier economic conditions in times to come. Vaccination drives to play instrumental role in the same.

 

3. Services Serves Growth On The Menu

India Services PMI increased to 55.3 in February from 52.8 in January, growing at its fastest pace in over a year. Growing for 5 months in a row, survey credited the uptick to improved demand and more favorable market conditions. Sub-sector data highlighted Transport & Storage as the brightest spots recording the strongest increases in new business and output. Information & Communication was the only sub-sector to post contractions in sales and business activity.

he growing services PMI adds to expectations of strengthening of current economic recovery, with other high-frequency indicators such as IIP, auto sales, railway freight, power demand, and exports(declining at weakest rate in last 12 months) also exhibiting similar traits.

 

4. Drained India Drawn As Investment Destination For To-Be Gain(ed) Investors

Economic Multilateralism and National Capacity Building will help nations recover from covid disruptions. Export and Demography prowess coupled with like-minded policies and practices can make India the hotspot for investments the world-over, thus kick-starting a global recovery from home.

Coming out of this trouble bubble has boosted India’s efforts to become the supreme everything-maker as much as it has set back its abilities to do so. In expedition of New Normal, the country is quick to adapting and improvising on current challenges to make them future opportunities for growth.

 

5. Subsidy Suite Puts A Spring On Safety

Subsidy bill is likely to be higher for 2021-22 compared to budget estimate (BE) 2020-21, but possibly lower than RE 2020-21. Higher spending on food and fertilizer sees minimal comfort by reduced in low oil prices. Cash transfers also saw robust response from beneficiaries, as can be inferred from data on Aadhaar-enabled Payment System, where the value and volume of transactions have risen steadily this year.

The higher outlay on subsidy must also be seen in the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown, with the Centre announcing relief measures under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana. Real shock is likely to come from low revenue receipts.

The Signal: The Week Highlights

The-Signal-Week-and-more-1

The signal 4

 

1. Moody’s Assigns India A New Mood

Moody’s revises India’s growth projection to 13.7% for FY22; expects contraction of 7% this fiscal. The revised numbers came on the back of normalization of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines

The very large rebound incorporates the view that recovery in market activity will continue

In making Co-vid becoming Go-vid, India assigns packages and policies with direct and indirect benefits to drive key economic indicators in the present and near future. Playing to its strengths in demography, ‘local maker – global seller’ approach and looser spending budget will help India contain the contaminator and expedite the adoption of New Normal.

 

2. PLI Potential Draws From Ocean 11

In 7 years’ time, India can look to augur higher GVA figures, courtesy of business-friendly norms in 11 key identified manufacturing sectors. Industry policy should oomph export growth, import localization, domestic demand, and contract manufacturing to source healthy and wealthy growth. 

Finding new home in India, companies with market-cap bigger than country have situated its producers where its consumers are. The cash-rich entities continue to be cash-hungry, being interest-invoked by India’s make-&-take plans. The Make Local – Sell Global policy is here and alive.

 

3. FDI Fervor Is Here To Stay

There is a growing interest among overseas investors about the country amid the government’s continuing reform measures to further improve the business climate. Easing compliance will be a priority area to draw fresh overseas investments.

FDI recorded significant jump irrespective of global slowdown. Easing compliance and relaxed norms have attracted investors. The key sectors attracted investors are hardware, telecom, trading, construction, auto, chemical and pharmaceuticals. The trend is expected to continue with more development on ease of doing business.

 

4. Covid Can Cause Cheers Or Confusion

Vaccine efficacy and vaccination drive will be key in printing market trajectory in immediate times. The current recovery can be attributed to 3 factors– robust flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPI), fundamentals and sentiments. A crack in vaccine strategy can erode any 1/3 influencers.

Inflation and corporate earnings are going to be directly determined by vitality in vaccine distributions. Surge in the virus can push interest rates and valuations as central banks around the globe will look to cut liquidity supply.

 

5. Govt Divestment Is Nation’s Best Investment

New enterprise policy envisages strategic sectors to have upper-cap of 4 PSUs, with rest being rationalized via mergers, amalgamations and privatization. Emphasizing on domestic production, globally competitive costs and improving R&D, the paradigm framework calls for collaborative efforts with private sector.

Harmony between govt. policies and private practices is a winning combination for India to hold induce competences on the national and international front. In idoling Big Tech / Pharma of the west, India recognizes the accrued intelligence in collective capital and efficiencies of scale.

The Signal: How To Invest When Markets Seem Peaked

The signal

  1. Should I invest today when the market is near its all-time high?
  2. Is it possible to make money in today’s markets?
  3. The markets may go down from here. Is it best to wait out the fall and then invest?

Carrying the same tone, the questions above are a summation of our investor’s most frequently asked worries. The CY2021 YTD run-up lends merit to their pains, as arguments calling for future rise or fall hold equal credibility with investors left to fend off the interim volatilities.

Shown below is the market’s trajectory so far in CY21 YTD:

The signal 1

In be-friending volatility, markets graced all-time highs and settled at levels last seen in 2020. On a daily basis, +ve and -ve equity returns are equally distributed, further adding friction to finding direction in a market where there is none to be found. 

Fortunately, optimism still continues to hold softer edge with renowned investors pegging Nifty at 1,00,000 by 2030. Their observations make entering markets today an easy and lucrative ask, but as we know, it is anything but easy.

In realizing the importance of time in the market vs timing the market, it is imperative to design a structured/systematic entry point into today’s markets. (Systematic…hmm? I think you must have realized where this piece is headed next)

Yes, you guessed right, we are going to be talking about SIPs! 

In 1 sentence, SIP is a science-cum-art method of investing, inculcating discipline while being market level-agnostic. 

Today, while markets are not particularly range-bound, they are still tethering near their all-time highs, or showing euphoria to re-trave those levels. 

So, can SIPs work in today’s markets? Rather, how effective is it as a tool of investing when markets are near their apparent peaks?

The graph below shows how SIPs performed in the past if initiated at peaks vs bottoms: 

The signal 2

As is seen above, SIPs started at year-peaks out-performed investors “timing” the bottom, and marking their entry at said levels. The time-lines shown above were wrought with frenzy, carrying similar uncertainties regarding market’s near-&-long term growth.

In fact, the same was seen in Year 2000, where SIPs starting at peaks delivered lucrative returns to investors. The table below highlights the same:

The signal 3

Another key observation that we can draw from the numbers above is the impact of early investing. Earlier the start, higher is the benefit accrued from the magic of compounding. 

Investor Takeaway:

As is widely acknowledged, no can accurately predict what the next market high or bottom will be. However, empirical testing suggests that SIP can help investors recognize market’s potential via active participation even when participants are left blindfolded by their own admissions. So, don’t worry about where the markets are headed, as long-term investors are the only real winners in the Indian markets. 

We actively recommend you to start your SIP today in funds which suit your risk-return profile and help you maintain your required asset allocation.

As always, we excitedly await to hear from you. 

Till next time, wish you a happy weekend.

The Signal: What Are The Markets ‘Signal’-ing Today?

The Signal: What Are The Markets ‘Signal’-ing Today?

 

India has kicked off 2021 with elevated enthusiasm as benchmark indices in Nifty and Sensex crossed and re-crossed the 15,000 and 50,000 milestones. Now helmed as the 7th largest stock market worldwide, Indian equities overtook Canada, Germany and Saudi Arabia, recording a total market-cap of $2.7 trillion.

Indian equities have delivered returns, tensions, more returns and more tensions by seeing wild swings on the upside and downside. The present positives are being met with future uncertainties, leading to markets giving mixed signals. 

In an attempt to address these queries, this blog dissects the current market movements into 4 as-simple-as-informative graphs. Highlighting observations, here is what the markets have to ‘Signal’, and how you can make the most of it.

 

Graph 1 – The Return Reckoner

The signal 1

Observations:

  1. The viral virus of Covid-19 pushed India and world into socio-economic lockdowns. India’s govt. organized one of the largest relief packages worldwide to anchor India as global growth engine in post-covid world
  2. Markets rallied 80%+ since march lows, with gains being heavily polarized to large-cap stocks. Heavy buying pushed index’s P/E ratio to 36.57 vs long-term avg of ~24. With valuations stretched, and ample flows, investors are looking elsewhere to invest. The backdrop makes mid-&-small cap index companies an exciting opportunity for investors over the next 5 years
  3. The mid-&-small cap segments have given comforted returns over the last 3 years. Govt. MSME plans, supportive valuations (PE contraction of 50% from 2017 peaks), and Multi-cap MF regulation change, are set to bring in flows into these segments.
    In fact, over the last 5 years, mid-&-small caps have greatly out-performed large-caps, as the former have seen 78 & 117 companies report growth vs 68 in the latter

 

Graph 2 – The Market-Cap Wedge

The signal 2

Observations:

  1. As observed, post the 2018 market fall, the market rally was particularly narrow and was led majorly by growth stocks. Going forward, the market rally is expected to be broader, courtesy of expansionary policy measures by global central banks, and other covid solution practice
  2. To put it simply, most of the market growth that we see today has come from a handful of stocks in adhering to the “big gets bigger” principle. As we near the exhaustion of the too-big-to-fail syndicates, Indian markets will expectedly fall on the performances of the mid, small and micro institutions. Wider inclusion across market-caps will not only reduce dichotomy between markets and economy fundamentals but also reflect true health & wealth of the sync between them
  3. The fact in growth being pegged to sans-large indices is clearly reflected in figures of the remaining muted market-caps, in their evolution of garnering relevant investor attention

 

Graph 3 – Championing Cross Market-Cap Portfolio

The signal 3

Observations:

  1. 2020 markets saw mini bouts for particular asset classes contingent on developments and un-developments. The call for asset allocation stood ground when extremes in allocations became widely visible. Tailored, actively managed, rightly allocated portfolios made the best of markets in up and down trends by systematically managing portfolio exposures
  2. Investors who were diversified across market-caps in their portfolios saw stronger performance vis-à-vis Large-cap MFs and broader markets. In numbers, following were the calendar-year results:
    • Portfolio delivered absolute return of 23.0% 
    • Portfolio delivered alpha of 3.2% vs Large-Cap fund
    • Portfolio delivered alpha of 8.2% vs broader market index

 

Graph 4 – Sectoral Salutes

The signal 4

Observations:

  1. The covid phenomenon changed face and value of sectoral outlooks with immediate needs calling for immediate actions. Recognized as the biggest health crisis of the last century, it gave impetus to health & IT sectors, as the health of the 2 factions were key in determining the wealth of the self and surroundings. The imposed lock-downs called for halting activities in manufacturing, productions and service-oriented market sectors. As an example, Auto sales recorded 0 automobiles sold in April 2019, for the 1st time in recorded history in India
  2. Today, those sectors which welcomed India’s affluence are anticipating market corrections, courtesy of bumper run-ups. Sectors like Auto, and Metal (representing Infra) are expected to lead next-gen growth as Govt. looks to publishing India as the world’s new manufacturer. The support is evident in policy announcements of Atmanirbhan Abhiyan, car scrappage policy and infra-oriented FY22 budget

If Indian equities can come out so strong when the world is at its weakest (reeling from biggest healthcare crisis of this century!), then it is only left to imagination to perceive what the markets can achieve in better times. As is said, “A Penny Earned Is A Penny Saved”.

The Signal: The Week Highlights

The-Signal-Week-and-more (1)

The signal

 

1. India To Register Double-Digit Growth In FY22: S&P

An increase in commodity prices and a revival of domestic demand after the easing of lockdown have brought upside earnings surprises while changing consumer choices such as the preference for personal transport for health-safety reasons, have helped industries such as automobiles.

The Stronger than expected recovery of corporate earnings after the pandemic-related disruption, improved GST receipts, mobility trends showing driving in India has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and several high-frequency indicators such as purchasing managers’ indices point to positive near-term prospects.

 

2. Finance Ministry Asks RBI To Ensure A Higher Dividend For Govt In FY22

The finance ministry has asked the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to make every effort to secure a higher dividend for the government in the financial year 2021-22 (FY22), despite sliding interest rates globally, sources in the know said. It has also sought the RBI’s advice on gold monetization. 

RBI has been the front-runner in helping India restrict economic shocks of Covid-19. RBI has advised against any change in the inflation goalposts. RBI Governor has assured Finance Minister that the Rs 12.05-trillion gross borrowing programme for FY22 will go through smoothly.

 

3. India’s January Trade Deficit Narrows

India’s trade deficit in goods narrowed to USD 14.54 billion in January as exports grew faster than imports. The exports rose 6.16% in January from a year earlier, while imports were up by 2.03%.

India records positive momentum in exports, reflecting expedited adaption of the world to the New Normal. Reduction of customs duty will promote domestic manufacturing. Easy access to input materials will help India to get onto the global value chain.

 

4. Government Backs Merger Of Two Tax Slabs In GST

The central government is in favour of merging the goods and services tax (GST) rates of 12% and 18% into a single slab, a top finance ministry official said, acceding to a demand first made by some states and endorsed by the Fifteenth Finance Commission (FFC).

The impact on the consumer will depend on the Council’s decision but reducing the tax rate will make the GST regime simpler for the states and, the government would hope, improve compliance. Sectors such as consumer cyclicals, consumer defensives may benefit from this decision.

 

5. Industry Cheers PLI For Telecom Sector

The Rs 12,195 crore PLI scheme (operational from FY22) for telecom equipment manufacturing is “a big positive” that will spur local production and generate employment, boding well for the 2nd largest global telecom market. India is eyeing trillion dollar digital economy over the next 2 years.

Telecom operators have new life breadth into them as India drives its “Make Local – Sell Global” philosophy. After extension of loan moratorium for another decade (albeit with some condition), announced last year, this news can rejuvenate call lines in the land of cheapest data rates in the world.

The Signal: The Week Highlights

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The Signal newsletter

 

1. RBI Pushes Yield On 10-year G-secs Back To Below 6%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forced down yield on the 10-year benchmark bond below 6% in a special auction of government securities (G-Secs), smoothening the government’s massive borrowing programme.

The OMO operations have managed to successfully bring down the yields in the market with the RBI offering a higher price to banks, which is mutually beneficial as it brings down yields. This appears to be the main aim of RBI to keep yields stable for the government so as to complete the enhanced borrowing programme for FY21.

 

2. Supply Cuts, Stimulus Helping Crude Prices

Crude oil prices are finding support in supply cuts among key producers and hopes for further US economic stimulus measures to boost demand. Brent crude for April touched a high of USD 59.95 per barrel. 

Saudi Arabia’s pledge of extra supply cuts is helping to balance global markets. Stronger crude prices are encouraging other global crude oil producers to increase output. While the lockdowns across parts of Europe and Asia are keeping a lid on fuel demand.

 

3. Crude, Cracks And Tax Cocktail Pushes India’s Fuel Users To The Brink

The recent inching up of crude oil price to beyond $60 a barrel, has locked domestic petrol and diesel rates at record levels. Petrol price climbed to an all-time high of Rs 87.30 a litre in Delhi, and diesel sold at Rs 77.48 a litre. In Mumbai, petrol sold at Rs 93.83 a litre, and diesel was at Rs 84.36.

A recovery in international prices is expected to keep petrol and diesel prices firm in the country. The price hikes are supported by a gradual revival in global demand and continued production cuts by major suppliers. In India, higher prices are heavily driven by high taxation levied by the central and state governments.

 

4. Finance Minister’s Tariff Increases Based On New Economic Gambit

Higher import barriers can attract foreign investment from ‘tariff jumping’ investors keen on doing business in the country. The Budget raised import duty on items such as cotton, plastic, leather, gems and jewellery and various electronic items but slashed duty on key raw materials such as naphtha to lower the costs borne by domestic producers.

Our customs duty policy should have the twin objectives of promoting domestic manufacturing and helping get India onto global value chains and export better. The thrust now has to be easy access to raw materials and exports of value-added products.

 

5. NBFCs To Get Funds Under On Tap TLTRO Scheme For Incremental Lending

RBI proposed to provide funds to NBFCs from banks under on tap TLTRO scheme for lending to some stressed sectors. RBI will conduct on tap TLTRO with tenors of up to three years for a total amount of up to Rs one lakh crore at a floating rate linked to the policy repo rate.

The objective of TLTRO was to improve transmission of rate cuts. It was to support banks by offering durable longer-term liquidity at the repo rate. This can help them lower the rates they charge on retail and industrial loans. The key factor to observe will be monetary policy transmission and credit offtake.

The Signal: Fuel Becomes Pricey – Here’s All You Need To Know

The Signal Feb 2

The post-pandemic India has been characterized by many a positives, but has also brought forth a set of negatives. A key element of the latter which has attracted individual & institutional attention has been the daily-increasing fuel prices. 

As reference, petrol and diesel prices have recorded an upswing since January 6, 2021 after staying unchanged for nearly a month. Primary reason for fuel rates increases can be attributed to global crude oil price rally, and COVID-19 vaccination drive.

In India, fuel is favored across agencies and households for its versatility and immediate utility. The graph below shows how fuel price movement is more impactful across facets of Indian society vs global peers:

The Signal 1

It is no secret that petrol & diesel prices today are trading at their highest levels in 2021. With majority spike seen across metro cities, below are the respective prices across the Big 4 cities in the country:

The Signal 2

Producer supply cuts, revival of manufacturing & production in India, and optimistic business confidence has bolstered positive momentum for oil in country. This is highlighted in the extension oil price rally for 9th straight day, thus accounting for its longest winning streak in 2 years.

Given the above backdrop, it is imperative we understand the art-&-science behind fuel pricing and impact of latest announcements which are keeping fuel prices elevated at current levels.

The table below highlights the key factors which play instrumental role in determining the petrol price and the observations on the same:

The Signal 3

The FY22 budget drew praise for being bold by welcoming more-than-able expenses amidst a global pandemic. A key beneficiary by way of direct and indirect expenditure is set to be agriculture, or in financial terms, how India employs 70% of its 1.2 billion+ population!

In a bid to welcome efficiency in the field (pun intended), the introduction of the AIDC is set to augur revenues for the farmers and its feeders (India). In a bid to reduce burden of implemented cess on consumers, the following excise duty announcements have been parallelly made:

  1. Reduction of basic duty from Rs.2.98 /ltr to Rs.1.4 /ltr for petrol
  2. Reduction of basic duty from Rs.4.83 /ltr to Rs.1.8 /ltr for diesel
  3. Special duty sees reduction by Rs.1 on both petrol & diesel, bringing down revised cost to Rs. 11 & Rs. 8 respectively

As is observed, Current fuel prices and Govt. intentions show discrepancy, as after all efforts, the fuel prices are bearing high buying prices. How has this happened?

The main culprit is the steep hike in taxes (refer to table above) undertaken by govt (central & state) in years last. Further, the crude crash in 2020 May was met by duty hikes to offset revenue shortfalls in direct & indirect tax collections. 

As India gears to become the new global growth engine and the world’s manufacturer, it will look to boost imports and thus will need to amplify its revenues source at the same time. Hence, current pressures on fuel prices can stay the momentum to meet self-imposed growth targets.

The Impact Assessment

  • On India:

On a macro level, fuel prices have accounted for ~88% of the total fuel import bill over the last 2 decades. The graph highlights the same on a calendar-year basis:

The Signal 4

As is observed, crude oil import accounted for 85%+ of total import bill in the year of the pandemic, i.e. when all activity came to an abrupt standstill! In fact, fuel price increase bear direct impact on country’s inflation indices across consumer and wholesale measurement scales.

Hence, increasing cost of fuel bears direct and indirect impact on every purchase made by institutions irrespective of scale. The one respite lies in the amassed reserves ($590 Bn – highest ever) which have enough firepower to cover a year’s worth of import costs.

On Indians: 

  1. First and foremost, the increase in oil prices is set to reduce your purchasing power as goods & services are set to become expensive thus leading to temporary hikes in your monthly budget. 
  2. Increase in oil prices will elevate cost of goods for companies, thus eating into their bottom-lines. The potential impact of reduced profits may translate into reduced share prices. The effect on personal investments can be limited by investing into mutual funds, as they champion diversification and are backed by professional management.

Anecdotally speaking, change in fuel price is the equivalent of the ‘Butterfly Effect”. However, does that need to worry you? Simply put, No.

Oil prices have increased before, and will increase again in the future. However, remember, every rise is accompanied with a fall. It is imperative to stay sound and not permanent changes on temporary actions (All of 2020 will attest to this).

Do write to us in case you wish to share your thoughts with us. We excitedly await to hear from you.

Till then, wish you a Happy weekend

 

Budget FY21-22 & Your Personal Finances

The Union Budget presented on the 1st of February 2021 was one cheered by analysts, economists and capital markets alike. While there is a lot to talk about, in this piece we will focus on the top five announcements that matter to the common investor.

1. Tax filing exemption to 75 years+ age investor
For senior citizens who only have pension and interest income, government proposed an exemption from filing their income tax returns. The paying bank will deduct the necessary tax on their income.
No other change in the income tax slab and income tax exemptions applicable for senior citizens.

Key clause:
If an investor earns any revenue other than the pension and interest income i.e. dividend income or any other, then they have to file income tax returns

Impact:
This will reduce the compliance burden on senior citizens and make their life easy.

2. Positive restructuring in deposit insurance cover for bank investors
Government has made amendments to the DIGC act,1961. As per the revised amendments, depositors of the stressed banks that are temporarily unable to fulfill their obligations can get easy and time-bound access to their deposits up to INR.5 lakhs.
Earlier, the deposit insurance cover limit of INR.5 lakh was not applicable to stressed banks. It was only applicable if the bank’s license got canceled and liquidation proceedings were started.

Impact:
The move is expected to reinstate depositor confidence in banks.

3. Taxation changes for Unit Linked Insurance Policies (ULIPs)
The government had made changes to taxation for ULIPs in the latest budget. As per the finance bill, for ULIPs taken on or after February 1, 2021, the maturity proceeds with an annual premium of more than INR.2.5 lakh will be taxable. Even individuals holding multiple ULIPs with an aggregate premium in excess of INR.2.5 lakh will have to pay tax on maturity proceeds.

Key clause:
The amounts received under such ULIP policies on the death of the policyholder will be exempt from tax.

Impact:
This move will impact investors investing in ULIPs to avail tax-free returns. This will not affect investors holding policies other than ULIPs or ULIPs with annual premia not exceeding INR 2.5L.

4. No changes in tax slabs
No changes have been proposed to existing personal income tax rates.

5. Changes in provident fund contribution above INR.2.5 lakh
In order to rationalize tax exemption for the income earned by high-income employees, it is proposed to restrict tax exemption for the interest income earned on the employees’ contribution to various provident funds to the annual contribution of INR 2.5 lakh.

Key clause:
It will be only applicable to the employee’s share of the provident fund and not the employer’s.

Impact:
This move is expected to impact a small category of high-net-worth individuals.

While there is a lot more to explore in the budget, these were the most important from a personal finance standpoint.

 

 

 

restructuring construct or form anew or provide with a new structure More (Definitions, Synonyms, Translation)

The Signal: The Week Highlights

The-Signal-Week-and-more-1
1. GST Revenue Collection Is At All-Time High

The GST revenues during January 2021 are the highest since introduction of GST and has almost touched the ₹ 1.2 lakh crore mark, exceeding the last month’s record collection of ₹1.15 lakh crore.

The economy is showing signs of improvement across segments. India witnessed shoots of recovery in tax collection from companies, GST revenue and direct tax collection. GST revenues in January 2021 have been the highest since the introduction of GST. Corporate net profit recorded a multi-fold increase in September 2020 Quarter, and similar momentum is expected to continue.

2. Unprecedented Thrust On Infrastructure

The FM has made a bold move to budget an increase in the capital expenditure by 35 per cent to ₹5.4-lakh crore in FY22 from ₹4.1-lakh crore budgeted last year. The Central government’s capex next year will amount to 2.5 per cent of the GDP from 1.9 per cent in the previous year.

The continuous focus on infrastructure along with focus on real estate is likely to boost sectors which are directly indirectly related to infrastructure. Further, infrastructure projects will gain traction as the government focus on the rural economy and employment generation.

3. India’s Energy Sector Can Attract New Investment

India’s developmental stage engenders a rapid expansion of energy consumption and a need for robust energy security. world’s total primary energy demand would increase at less than 1% per annum till 2040. On the other hand, India’s energy demand would grow at about 3% per annum till 2040. This energy growth would be mainly supported by India and other countries in Asia.

India’s step towards green energy, expansion of capacity for reserves will create an opportunity for investors. The deployment of the latest technologies under Industrial Revolution 4.0 will improve productivity and efficiency. India’s growth story will be a tale of constant adaption, revision, and change.

4. No Magic Pill To Revive Demand Overnight

With such healthy growth rates marking firms selling groceries, staples, health, hygiene and personal care products, the government probably did not deem it fit to offer any magic pill in the budget to boost consumption overnight. No direct handouts were announced to push demand.

The budget took a longer-term view to restart the consumption cycle through structural reforms. Big investments announced in various infrastructure segments such as roads, public transportation and ports are expected to not only boost demand for steel and cement but also for local labor.

5. New Highs For Sensex

Continued exuberance around the Union budget and positive global cues lifted stocks further, with the benchmark Sensex index closing above the 50,000 mark for the first time, gaining more than 8% in just three days.

The budget is fueling a rally in all economy-driven sectors, along with banking. The uptick in global markets, resumption of foreign inflows, and strong earnings trend coming from December quarter results are other factors that are taking the stock markets higher. Markets are like life—they are chaotic and volatile in the short term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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