The Signal (weekly highlights)

1. India’s GDP grows at 8.4% in Q2

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 8.4% on year in the September quarter, as value addition across sectors picked up moderately and help came from a favourable base (-7.4%)

Government’s support to the economy via consumption and investment is helping the recovery from the troughs caused by the pandemic, although a calibration of such support is in evidence.  Private capex revival is slow and limited to certain sectors.

2. 8 Core Industries see a healthy growth

The output of eight core sectors in the month of October grew 7.5% in October Vs 4.5% in September and -0.5% in October 2020.The growth came on the back of healthy performance by coal, natural gas, refinery products and cement segments

During April-October this fiscal, the sectors’ output rose by 15.1 per cent as compared to a contraction of 12.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year.

3. Centre’s fiscal deficit at just 36% of FY22BE in Apr-Oct

Robust revenues helped the Centre to contain its fiscal deficit in the first seven months of the current financial year at just 36.3% of budget estimate (BE) for the whole of year. In April-October of FY22, the Centre’s net tax receipts rose 83% on year to Rs 10.53 lakh crore

Both revenues and expenditures are seen overshooting the respective budget targets by `1.5-2 lakh crore each in the current fiscal year, allowing the deficit target of 6.8% of the GDP to be met.

4. GST Collections cross 1.3 lakh crore in November

The gross GST revenue collected in the month of November 2021 was ₹1,31,526 crore, the second highest ever since introduction of GST

The revenues for the month of November 2021 are 25% higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year and 27% over 2019-20. enhancement of system capacity, nudging non-filers after last date of filing of returns, auto-population of returns have helped increase the collections

5. India’s manufacturing sector sees further strength in November

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), increased from 55.9 in October to 57.6 in November, signaling the strongest improvement in the health of the sector in ten months

The overall economic health of the country pointed towards a sustained recovery with growth taking the front seat now. The key threat to the outlook remains a new wave of covid & inflationary pressure.