RBI Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Update
Executive Summary
Monetary Policy Committee
- Rates and stance maintained. No change.
- Focus remains on containing inflation while balancing growth.
- CPI inflation is projected at 4.5% for 2024-25, with risks evenly balanced across quarters.
- Food prices uncertainties would continue to weigh on the inflation outlook
- Real GDP growth for 2023-24 is expanded at 7.6%, and projections for 2024-2025 are at 7.0% with risks evenly balanced across quarters.
Fisdom Research Commentary
- Announcements broadly in line with expectations.
- Yields on papers with 5 to 7 years effective residual maturity appear lucrative
- Selective exposure to high-quality, sub-AAA-rated papers should help boost overall portfolio returns.
Key Announcements
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on April 05, 2024, and made the following decisions based on their assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation:
- The policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) will remain unchanged at 6.50%.
- The standing deposit facility (SDF) rate will also remain at 6.25%
- The marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate will be maintained at 6.75%
The MPC will gradually withdraw accommodation to ensure inflation meets the medium-term target. The objective is to achieve a consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate of 4% within a band of +/- 2% while supporting economic growth.
| MPC Members | Decisions |
| Dr. Shashanka Bhide, Dr. Ashima Goyal, Dr. Rajiv Ranjan, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra and Shri Shaktikanta Das | Policy repo rate to be maintained at 6.50%. |
| Dr. Shashanka Bhide, Dr. Ashima Goyal, Dr. Rajiv Ranjan, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra and Shri Shaktikanta Das | Focus on withdrawal of accommodation. |
| Prof. Jayanth R. Varma | Reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points. |
Inflation Projection
| Assumptions and Projections for CPI Inflation | |||
| Period | Previous MPC Estimates | Current MPC Estimates | Change |
| Quarter 1 (Q1) FY24-25 | 5.00% | 4.90% | Revised lower |
| Quarter 2 (Q2) FY24-25 | 4.00% | 3.80% | Revised lower |
| Quarter 3 (Q3) FY24-25 | 4.60% | 4.60% | Unchanged |
| Quarter 4 (Q4) FY24-25 | 4.70% | 4.50% | Unchanged |
| Fiscal Year 2024-25 | 4.50% | 4.50% | Unchanged |
Fisdom Research Commentary
- Inflation plays a critical role in shaping monetary policy decisions and overall economic stability. Currently, easing inflationary pressures provide global central banks with the opportunity to maintain existing policy measures. Expectations of inflation nearing target rates signify a potentially positive development, aligning with central banks’ objectives.
- Several factors influence the trajectory of inflation. The evolving food inflation outlook, coupled with uncertainties arising from possible adverse weather events, contribute to fluctuations in inflation rates. Additionally, core inflation remains subdued with both goods and services witnessing a fall in inflation. This is due to the continued transmission of monetary policy actions and stances. However, geopolitical tensions and volatility in financial markets pose key risks to the inflation outlook.
- Looking ahead, various factors suggest a favorable environment for reducing inflationary pressures. The monetary policy also warned off that after witnessing sustained moderation inflation cost push pressures faced by companies are facing upward bias. Moreover, global central banks’ policies, aimed at maintaining stability and stimulating economic growth, are conducive to moderating inflation rates.
