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Research Macroscope Ups to Downs – Markets Win Every Year

Ups to Downs – Markets Win Every Year

Written by - Fisdom Research

November 28, 2023 2 minutes

Key Highlights

Calendar Year Volatility Assessment:
Each year is susceptible to dynamic fluctuations driven by a confluence of global and domestic risks, affecting all market participants indiscriminately.

Duration of Market Downturn:
On average, the market experiences a downturn lasting approximately 4 to 5 months within the year, constituting a significant period of economic uncertainty.

A Decade of Volatility and Triumph:
Over the past ten years, despite more than 50% of trading days experiencing negative returns, the stock market concluded positively in all years except one, highlighting a remarkable resilience to short-term volatility.

Strategic Investment Augmentation:
Investors who strategically increased their Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) by 20% during market contractions realized a substantial 869% in excess gains, surpassing the returns generated from their additional investment.

Informed Investment During Contractions:
Those investors who chose to remain invested during market downturns experienced returns that were 16 percentage points higher in 2023 and 28 percentage points higher in 2020 compared to their counterparts who redeemed their investments and reinvested in safer assets. This underscores the value of informed and steadfast investment strategies during challenging market phases.

Path To Crorepati

An Rs. 10 lakh lumpsum investment in the Year 2000 has surged to ~Rs. 1.6 crore by 2023.

Market Wins Every Year

Navigating Positivity Amidst Annual Volatility

Calendar YearMaximum DrawdownMaximum GainCY Returns (%)% of Negative daysLowest Daily Returns
CY2023-7.00%12.10%5.80%44%-1.60%
CY2022-16.20%10.70%5.70%50%-4.70%
CY2021-10.20%29.80%25.50%44%-3.70%
CY2020-45.80%19.90%16.10%41%-12.90%
CY2019-11.10%14.30%13.40%47%-2.10%
CY2018-15.30%12.30%4.60%46%-2.60%
CY2017-4.10%26.80%30.20%47%-1.50%
CY2016-12.90%13.90%4.30%47%-3.30%
CY2015-15.70%8.60%-3.00%50%-5.90%
CY2014-6.60%32.70%32.80%41%-2.10%
  • Over the past ten years, in each calendar year, the stock market experienced at least 50% of its trading days with negative returns.
  • Strikingly, despite this high occurrence of negative days, the market concluded positively in all years except one.

Investing Through Market Fall

Unlocking Insights

Calendar Year: 2023

Period01st  January 2023 – 31st October 2023
Negative Month Counts5 of 12
Returns During The Year5.88%
Maximum Drawdown-7.17%

Source: ACE MF, TradingView, Fisdom Research.

Calendar Year: 2022

Period01st  January 2022 – 31st October 2022
Negative Month Counts7 of 12
Returns During The Year5.69%
Maximum Drawdown-17.02%

Source: ACE MF, TradingView, Fisdom Research.

Calendar Year: 2021

Period01st  January 2021 – 31st October 2021
Negative Month Counts4 of 12
Returns During The Year25.59%
Maximum Drawdown-10.38%

Source: ACE MF, TradingView, Fisdom Research.

Calendar Year: 2020

Period01st  January 2020 – 31st October 2020
Negative Month Counts3 of 12
Returns During The Year16.13%
Maximum Drawdown-46.08%

Source: ACE MF, TradingView, Fisdom Research.

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