Macro Summary: Growth Stable, Drivers Broadening Amid Global Moderation
Global Macro Outlook
Moderating Growth, Easing Inflation
- Global economic growth is expected to remain stable but below historical averages, with IMF projections indicating growth of around 3.1–3.2% through the rest of the decade. Inflation is gradually easing as supply chains normalise and monetary tightening takes effect, with global inflation expected to trend closer to ~3% levels over the medium term.
- Trade activity and commodity prices are also expected to stabilise after the sharp volatility seen in recent years. Overall, the macro backdrop suggests a moderate but steady expansion phase, supported by improving policy stability and resilient domestic demand in key emerging markets.
- Way forward: Markets are likely to navigate a phase of steady growth and cooling inflation, with policy easing cycles and stable commodity prices potentially supporting risk assets and global investment flows.
(Source: IMF, W Research)
India – High Frequency Indicators(1/2)
Domestic fundamentals stable; inflation edges up, demand mixed
(Source: CMIE, W Research* Data is for January 2026)
India – High Frequency Indicators (2/2)
Industrial Recovery Emerging; External Demand Still Soft
- India’s macro environment remains broadly supportive, underpinned by resilient domestic demand and stable financial conditions. Inflation has moved higher but remains within the RBI’s tolerance band, while wholesale prices indicate only mild cost pressures. Consumption indicators such as GST collections and auto sales suggest demand remains healthy, with rural segments like two-wheelers and tractors showing strong momentum.
- Credit growth and strong forex reserves continue to support liquidity and financial stability. Industrial activity is recovering gradually, although momentum remains uneven across sectors.
- Looking ahead, growth is likely to remain resilient, supported by domestic consumption, infrastructure spending and improving rural demand, though the external sector could remain a key area to watch given weak global trade momentum.
(Source: CMIE, W Research* Data is for January 2026)
Current Economic Positioning
