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The Signal: Green Shoots of Recovery

Written by - Tejesh Kumar

July 17, 2020 2 minutes

“Indian Economy has started seeing ‘green shoots’ of recovery and that the country remains one of the most open economies in the world.”

– PM Narendra Modi at India Global Week 2020

The brightest minds and costliest resources have been dedicated to the fight against the pandemic. At the same time, persistent attempts are being made to keep the economies buoyant. India seems to be managing both fronts better than most global counterparts.

The same is reflected in the increasing number of patients recovering from covid-19 as well as maintaining lowest death rates in among countries with 1 million+ total cases, India is fighting the covid-19 battle in an admirable way. 

The country has not only restricted itself to curbing virus effect on the health of its citizens, it has also curbed the effects on the economy. On the economic front, despite most lockdown restrictions still being In force in many cities, the macroeconomic indicators reflect resilience.

Here are a couple of green shoots visible at the moment.

Green Shoot 1: Industrial/ Construction activity, though largely in contractionary phase, has started looking up.

Source: HIS Markit – GOI

Green Shoot 2: Uptick in high-frequency indicators; will take time for a complete rebound

railway fraight

Green Shoot 3: Rainfall Pattern in subdivisionsGood monsoon progress; A sigh of relief for rural consumers

Rainfall Pattern in subdivision

Out of 36 sub-divisions, nearly 82% of the sub-divisions have reported a higher-than-average monsoon.

Bottom line:

Though numbers may not have reached pre-covid levels, there’s merit in acknowledging that the uptick is in the face of continued (but diminishing) adversity. Unlock 1.0 has resulted in visible green shoots spurting out of the slump. As the world progresses in its fight against the pandemic, India looks promisingly strong in terms of public health & investor wealth

It is almost imperative that investors utilize times like now as opportunities to buy through systematic routes like Systematic Investment Plans & Systematic Transfer Plans.

Food for Thought: India on track to be among the top three economies in the world

food for thought

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